Does Mar-a-lago Search Bash or Boost Trump’s 2024 Presidential Prospects?

‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌​ ​ ‌​ ​ Washington – The FBI’s search of former US president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-lago resort and seizure of boxes of what it described as unlawfully retained presidential records, including classified information, could dash or bolster Trump’s 2024 run for president. So far it seems the latter.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation, for the first time in US history, executed a search warrant of a former president of the United States on August 8.

Immediately, Republicans unleashed a torrent of criticism, crying foul that the search of the former president, who is now a private citizen, is nothing more than “political persecution” of one of President Biden’s political rivals. Many Republicans, including sitting Congress member Marjorie Taylor Greene, called for the defunding of the FBI itself, with Senators and Congress members likening the FBI to the “gestapo.”

With the statements of Republican leaders fanning the flames, far-right extremists started calling for “war” and “revolution,” urging Americans to buy ammunition and “lock and load.”

An armed man in body armor tried to breach the FBI’s Cincinnati office, before leading federal agents on a high-speed car chase ending in him being shot and killed in a standoff.

Speculation about the basis for the search and what the FBI was looking for abounded on both the right and the left.

The Biden administration said that it did not know about the search in advance.

Law enforcement, which does not reveal information regarding searches and seizures to protect the integrity of investigations and preserve the target’s civil rights, remained silent. It was the former president who posted on “Truth Social” Monday evening that his home had been “sieged” by the FBI.

On Thursday, Attorney General Merrick Garland broke his silence, stating that he had “personally approved” a search warrant signed by a federal magistrate based upon probable cause. He said federal agents had executed a lawful search of Mar-a-lago.

Garland also announced that the Department of Justice (DOJ) had filed in court a motion to unseal the warrant and the inventory of documents that were seized from Mar-a-lago.

He emphasized that DOJ investigates wrongdoing “without fear or favor,” vowing once again to pursue facts wherever they lead. “No one is above the law.”

Trump had the opportunity to weigh in by Friday afternoon, but did not object. The court unsealed both documents on Friday.

The search warrant cites three statutes for the basis of the search and seizure: (1) removal or destruction of records, (2) obstruction of justice, and (3) the Espionage Act, each of which carries a prison term sentence ranging from up to 3 years to up to 20 years.

Among the documents sought by the FBI, according to The Washington Post, was classified information relating to nuclear weapons. Trump disputed that claim, calling it a “hoax.”

In January this year, Trump returned to the government 15 boxes of documents that he had taken with him when he left the White House in January 2021. Some of that material was classified.

In the spring, DOJ issued a subpoena for additional documents, but Trump did not comply. On June 3, a top FBI official visited Mar-a-lago to resolve the matter.

On June 8, the FBI told Trump to put an additional lock on the storage room, and on June 22, the FBI subpoenaed surveillance footage of the storage room.

One of Trump’s lawyers signed a declaration in June asserting that all classified material had been returned, and none remained at Mar-a-lago.

That statement turned out to be false. The FBI’s search on August 8 turned up 27 additional boxes of materials Trump had taken from the White House. According to the FBI’s inventory, the materials included photos, a clemency document related to the pardon of Roger Stone, handwritten notes, records labeled “Info re: President of France,” and 11 sets of documents marked classified at several different levels of sensitivity including “top secret” and “TS/SCI,” one of the highest levels of government classification.

Trump told aides last year that he believed that some of the documents were his personal property, but he had agreed to return some, giving the government “what he believed they were entitled to,” according to an advisor interviewed by the New York Times.

To have conducted such an unusual search and seizure, the DOJ must have believed that there was a grave danger to the US’s national security, compounded by Trump’s failure to fully cooperate, according to national security experts. Sources and methods can be compromised and lives lost by the release of such information, they said. The treasure trove of classified documents seized seems to have borne out their concern.

While Trump could face indictment, that may not stop him from running again for president. In the immediate aftermath of the search, Trump’s approval ratings went up dramatically. The GOP’s election strategy now is to harness the voter outrage.

Republicans have not only defended the former president, calling the DOJ and FBI “corrupt,” but they are politically capitalizing on the search as the springboard for Trump’s candidacy. They are urging him to announce his run before the midterm elections in November and are using the search to heavily fund raise.

Significantly, as far right extremists are using the search as a rallying call to action, polls are showing an increase in the numbers of their supporters who believe that violent action is justified to achieve political means.

With threats of violence escalating on far-right platforms of all kinds, law enforcement officials are issuing stark warnings about domestic terrorism.

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