The American midterm elections are significant because they determine which party has control of the US Congress and thus who organizes the chamber and decides what legislation Congress considers.
Historically, the party whose president is in office loses seats in both houses in what is essentially a referendum on the incumbent administration. In 2010, former President Barack Obama referred to the Democrats’ significant losses then as a “shellacking.” In 2006, Republicans took what then-President George W. Bush called a “thumping” in the congressional midterm elections.
So with President Biden’s current low approval rating, everyone was expecting a similar result this time around. But contrary to all predictions, the midterm elections did not spell disaster for the dems. While control of Congress hung in the balance, with significant issues on the ballot such as inflation, abortion, and democracy itself, Democrats showed unexpected resilience.
As ballots were being counted across the country all week, Republicans had the opportunity to win control, and Democrats were braced for sweeping losses.
However, many extreme right candidates such as Donald Bolduc (for US Senate – NH), Dr. Memet Oz (for US Senate – PA), Doug Mastriano (for Pennsylvania governor), Tudor Dixon (for Michigan governor), all endorsed by Trump, lost their races, and importantly, unlike their party leader, they conceded.
With the vote count neck-and-neck in the last few key districts still uncalled, late on Friday, the Associated Press called the Arizona senatorial race for incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly. On Saturday night, AP called the winner of the tight Senate race in Nevada to be Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, beating Republican contender Adam Laxalt.
With these last two seats, Democrats (along with two independent Senators who caucus with them) will maintain at least 50 votes in the 100-seat chamber, even despite the Georgia Senate runoff between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker scheduled for December 6. With Vice President Kamala Harris as a tie-breaker, Democrats will thus keep control of the US Senate for the remainder of Biden’s first term as President.
Issues played an important part in the election results. In states where abortion rights or democracy were on the ballot, for example, Democrats upended the typical midterm result.
However, another factor also played a major role. Former President Donald Trump is widely blamed by members of his own party for the Republican losses. “Almost everyone of these Trump-endorsed candidates that you see in competitive states has lost,” Republican former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said in an interview Wednesday.
Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan told CNN, “It’s basically the third election in a row that Donald Trump has cost us the race.” Hogan said it would be a mistake to nominate Trump as the 2024 presidential candidate after Republicans had failed to take control of the Senate and made far fewer gains in the House than predicted.
Republican Former House Speaker Paul Ryan said on a Wisconsin television station Thursday, “I think he’s a drag on our ticket.”
Many Republicans echoed the sentiments of New Hampshire Republican Governor John Sununu who described the losses as a “a rejection of extremism” by voters.
Media organizations, such as Fox News, that had formerly championed Trump have turned on the former president.
Trump reacted on his platform known as Truth Social, calling the US a “failing nation,” and once again claiming, without evidence, that election results in Nevada and Arizona are the result of voter fraud. The Democrats are “finding all sorts of votes” in those two states, he wrote.
Congresswoman Liz Cheney, speaking on Thursday at the Anti-Defamation League’s Never Is Now Summit on Antisemitism and Hate, said the results of this week’s midterm elections were a “rejection of the toxicity” of former President Donald Trump. “I think that it was a clear victory for Team Normal,” she said referring to mainstream Republicans such as herself who did not support the lie that Trump won in 2020.
A third factor was also at play. In what appears to have been a winning, although risky strategy, Democrats spent millions of dollars to elevate certain far-right Republican election deniers over more moderate Republican candidates in their party’s primaries to make their opponents easier to beat. According to analysis by the Washington Post, Democrats directly interfered in at least 13 Republican primaries, six gubernatorial races, two Senate contests, and five House campaigns, spending more than $53 million mostly on TV commercials.
Other Democrats have sharply criticized the practice. Democratic Congressman Tim Roemer, who organized a letter by former Democratic lawmakers criticizing their own party for using the tactic, called it “destructive.” It sacrificed the party’s “moral high ground,” he complained, and helped to amplify Trump’s false claims and further sow distrust about election integrity.
President Biden addressed the nation on Wednesday saying that election day was a “good day for democracy.” Recognizing that the results are not a ringing endorsement of his administration, he said he gets it that voters “are still frustrated,” and that the last few years have been “tough for so many people.”
Although any seat lost is “painful,” he said Democrats lost fewer seats in the House of Representatives “than any Democratic president’s first midterm election in the last 40 years. We had the best midterm for governors since 1986.”
The unanticipated Republican losses are an historic pivot point for the Republican party. Republican Senator Josh Hawley, who famously fist-pumped insurrectionists at the Capitol on January 6, tweeted, “The old party is dead. Time to bury it. Build something new.”
The question for many now is, notwithstanding continued support by the far-right Republican base, whether the party will abandon Trumpism and Trump in the Presidential election in 2024.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis seems to be the likeliest Republican contender to Trump, although he previously aligned himself with the former president.
As of press time, although the US Senate has been called, ballots are still being counted across the country in key races that will determine control of the House of Representatives. In several states, more ballots are expected to arrive from overseas voters and the military before the statutory deadlines expire later this week. Although Republicans presently have the edge, there is still a chance for Democrats to keep the House.
With record turnout the 2022 midterms have marked a rare rally for democracy itself, according to constitutional scholars and historians. Party politics aside, one of the US’s most prominent and conservative judges, appointed by President George H.W. Bush, Judge Michael Luttig tweeted, “For America’s democracy, these midterms were the most important elections in our Nation’s history. And the elections were indisputably a resounding victory for American democracy.”
